Americans who remember
the Iran Hostage Crisis of 1979, in which a group of Iranian
students took over the American embassy and held 52 U.S. diplomats
hostage for 444 days, can’t help but dislike the theocratic
regime still in place in Iran. Democratic or Republican, all
four of the most recent U.S. administrations pursued a policy
of having no diplomatic presence in Iran. This policy has been
in place for almost 30 years.
Today we know that Iran is developing its own nuclear program.
Remembering 1979, we feel uneasy about this whole Iran-becoming-a-nuclear-power
thing. We don’t know exactly why we are scared: combining
nuclear weapons and Iran in one sentence just doesn’t sound
good.
This blind fear, fueled by our current administration’s
calls to disengage Iran from the world by any means possible,
is inexcusable. With our eyes closed, we refuse to consider the
possibility that our perception of the Iranian threat is not
matched by the reality of this threat. The truth is, we know
very little about the country. Perhaps if we knew more, we would
see that it is irrational of us to be afraid of Iran, and it
is rational of them to be afraid of the United States.
With an alarming proximity to five nuclear powers (Russia, China,
India, Pakistan, and Israel), Iran is located in one of the most
volatile regions of the world. It doesn’t exactly fit into
this volatile region either, given the historic tensions between
Persia and the Arab countries, including an eight-year war between
Iran and Iraq.
Now, in addition to this already uncomfortable geopolitical situation,
Iraq is currently occupied by the United States, the world’s
strongest military and nuclear power. Another neighbor of Iran,
Afghanistan, is occupied by NATO, the world’s strongest
military alliance.
All these international tensions could have been relieved if
Iran was a strong, wealthy, and consolidated state. Its internal
health, however, just like its international standing, is not
stable. Despite increased revenue due to skyrocketing oil prices,
economic hardships persist: 40 percent of the Iranian population
lives below the poverty level; inflation and unemployment are
in double-digits. President Ahmadi-Nejad’s inability to
improve the economic situation in Iran makes him increasingly
unpopular. His overblown and often bombastic rhetoric towards
the United States and Israel does not sit well even with Ayatollah
Khamenei, the true leader of Iran. Political opposition to Ahmadi-Nejad
is gaining strength, with some speculating that he will face
tough challenges in his re-election bid next year.
In such a turbulent international and domestic environment, the
development of a nuclear program for peaceful and military purposes
is this regime’s best bet for its political survival. It
works well with the domestic audience because international opposition
to Iran’s right to develop its own nuclear program fuels
nationalist feelings among the Iranian population. It also helps
with Iran’s international standing since, as Fareed Zakaria,
a prominent international relations scholar, put it, “in
the world of international politics, a nuclear program is the
ultimate insurance policy.”
Don’t agree with Zakaria? Look at India, Pakistan, Israel,
and North Korea. All four of these countries have nuclear weapons
programs; all four of them acquired these weapons illegally.
When the world, the United States included, had to face the reality
of these countries being nuclear powers, serious consequences
did not follow. In fact, quite the opposite happened: Israel,
which till this day does not admit to having a nuclear weapons
program, is one of the United States’ closest allies; India
is on the verge of signing a nuclear agreement with the United
States; Pakistan, despite violations of democratic principles
by President Musharraf and despite Al-Qaeda’s haven formed
on the Pakistan-Afghan border, enjoys unprecedented support of
the U.S. government; North Korea has been paid to get rid of
its nuclear weapons and is no longer considered, by the United
States, a part of an Axis of Evil. It seems clear that wonderful
things happen to countries after they establish their nuclear
programs. Is it not a wise choice for Iran to proceed with enrichment
of uranium and face the consequences after its weapon is developed?
Given the precedents, these consequences are certainly better
than the ones Iran is facing now. The bottom line is that incentives
for Iran to continue with its nuclear program are far greater
than disincentives.
Realizing that Iran is on its way to becoming a nuclear power,
however, should not make us afraid. Before it is too late, we
need to make sure that our government, and whoever is in charge
of it, starts serious negotiations with Iran. Instead of putting
Iran on the same level with Hitler and threatening the coming
of World War III, our government needs to make a break with the
failed 30-year policy of calling Iran irrational and refusing
to negotiate. Perhaps it’s time to try something new. After
all, we are currently in negotiations with Kim Jong Il, a much
more belligerent and irrational dictator (Khamenei did not starve
two million of his people) of an expansionist country (North
Korea invaded South Korea in 1950; the Islamic Republic of Iran
has never invaded another country), and we were able to persuade
him to drop an already established nuclear program.
The best way to convince our leaders to abandon their failed
policies towards Iran is to stop our own hysteria over Iran acquiring
nuclear weapons. According to the February Gallup poll, 25 percent
of Americans consider Iran the U.S.’s greatest enemy. Only
9 percent of Americans, according to the same poll, think that
North Korea is our biggest foe, even though it is North Korea
that has nuclear weapons, and not Iran. It is time to stop allowing
our irrational fears to dictate our policies. We need to let
go of our embedded dislike of the regime and be adults here.
Direct talks are necessary and the United States, unlike Iran,
has no excuse for being afraid to negotiate.
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