The war in Iraq started the same way. The government
told us Iraq had nuclear weapons, and they must be stopped.
The United Nations wasn’t going to get the job done the
way Bush wanted it, so we discredited the United Nations, took
them out of control, and put our own harsher tactics to work.
The same pattern is unfolding for Iran.
Recently the news has been warming the American public up to
the idea that Iran is still on the agenda, with aerial shots
of possible nuclear weapons sites being investigated, and Condoleezza
Rice admitting, while on her “world tour,” that an
invasion of Iran has not been taken off the table.
Though this may be part of an initial attempt by the United
States to scare Iran into giving up its nuclear program,
to be steering us in the same direction as Iraq.We can bet that
Bush will not be a big fan of diplomacy. Is he ever?
France (which just starting speaking to us), Germany, and Britain
(our allies), have asked Iran to stop its nuclear work in exchange
for economic aid and trade benefits. According to the New Yorker, “Iran
has agreed to temporarily halt its enrichment programs, which
generates fuel for nuclear power plants but also could produce
weapons-grade fissile material.”
Of course, the United States refuses to join the negotiations. “No
diplomatic progress on the Iranian nuclear threat will take place
unless there is a credible threat of military action,” stated
the Pentagon in Seymour Hersh’s article called “The
Coming Wars.” Bush says he wants to use diplomacy above
all other options, but if he really meant this, wouldn’t
he join with his European allies? Some think he wants to wait
and watch the negotiations fail, and then he will make his move.
And without United States participation, Bush guarantees these
negotiations will not succeed.
Currently Iran is a participant in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty, but once the United States makes it clear it will resort
to “shock and awe” tactics, Iran is likely to abandon
the treaty. Treaty or not, maybe cheating within the system.
According to the New Yorker, Iran has successfully hidden its
nuclear program and is thought to be three to five years away
from producing nuclear warheads. But its missile-delivery system
is far more advanced.
Though Iran is a potential threat, the timing just does not
seem right for opening a new front. Aren’t we busy enough in
Iraq and Afghanistan right now? Trying to work this out diplomatically
with Iran seems to make so much more sense. Even if it just buys
us time until we tie up loose ends in Afghanistan and reduce
troops in Iraq. And time will allow us to verify that intelligence
on Iran’s nuclear weapons program is accurate. Bush cannot
afford to be wrong twice. If we attack all dimensions of the
axis too quickly, are we really going to be effective in the
Other factors to take into consideration are recent low recruitment
numbers for the military. Many units are on their second and
third deployments, many ranging from nine to 12 months. We cannot
spread our resources out this thin without having some sort of
Bush’s “axis of evil” appears to be a blue
print for wars to come.